All the hype has been on Baylor all year long with their regular ability to put up 70 points on below average defenses. Oklahoma's defense is not great, but it has the right ingredients to stay in this game on both sides of the ball. If you ask your average joe they would probably tell you Baylor throws the ball like crazy, but they are only throwing the ball 40% of the time which is about the same as Oklahoma. Part of that is because they get up early in games, but part of that is because they have a really talented running back in Lache Seastrunk. This rushing offense has not faced anyone that can stop the run with the exception of Kansas State who did hold them under 5 yards per carry. Oklahoma held them under 5 yards per carry last year and are ranked 64th against the run. They will still have issues stopping the run, but this Oklahoma defense is very good in other areas that should help them stay within the 15 points. Aside from Kansas State, Baylor has not faced a team in the top 70 in run defense this year.
Baylor's offensive line which has been terrific has not been tested all year. Here are the pass rushes they have faced with ranks. 88th, 95th, 119, 102nd, 105th. Oklahoma is only ranked 68th, but parlay that with the fact that they are 5th in yards per attempt and Baylor is going to have a hard time getting their big yards over the top. Petty at QB is still low on experience and has not faced a pass defense as good as Oklahoma's. Petty gets lazy with footwork which leads to accuracy issues and I think he is going to have to do something he has not had to do all year which is move the ball down the field without the big plays. Even against Kansas State he had 3 plays that just completely changed the game and Kansas State still had them on the ropes.
Oklahoma will stay in this game by taking one out of Kansas State's game plan. Run the ball and dominate on time of possession. The Oklahoma running game that features a trio of senior running backs and a running QB should be able to move the ball. After all Baylor's run defense that has been so good has only faced one rushing offense ranked in the top 60 in the nation and that was Kansas State which is ranked 40th in yards per carry. They ran for 327 yards, and Oklahoma is better ranking 18th at 5.2 ypc. Oklahoma is also more capable of moving the ball through the air than Kansas State was and even though Blake Bell won't make the big plays he will be smart as he's got a 143 QB rating with 10 TD and 3 interceptions. Oklahoma will move the ball on Baylor's experienced front 7 especially in the second half where their size advantage will take over.
In the end I think Oklahoma comes up short, but this will be a very competitive game that both teams will be up for with extra rest. The road team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 and the dog is 7-3 ATS while Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a bye with their last game being a 14 point win on the road earlier this season against Notre Dame. Oklahoma could and should be sitting undefeated, but they could not get up for a game against Texas, a game they were supposed to easily win. This is a game Baylor is easily supposed to win and that should only motivate Oklahoma.
